From today to the next capability
Targets and bottlenecks are editorial interpretations of a dated snapshot. Inspect the sources before treating them as current facts.
What could happen next?
Future goals are ideas to investigate. A goal is not a promise or proof that it has happened.
What comes next?
Level 2: weakly general AI
Snapshot 2026-09-22 · 75% toward Level 2 in the model. This is a milestone judgment, not a measured completion percentage.
Full milestone ladder & action path ↗Explore evidence & challenges
What could hold it back
Alignment and governance capacity keeping pace with capability — the one fork that can move Peace either way
What to watch
Metaculus AGI date; share of new scientific results with an AI-generated hypothesis; harmful autonomous incidents
Editorial interpretation · not a causal findingEvidence you can inspect
4 of 4 indicators have a source link and observation date, across 4 source websites. Coverage is not a quality or confidence score.
These are related indicators; they do not by themselves prove that the target has been achieved.
New here? What the labels mean
Reported fact
A number from a named source. Check when, where and what it measures.
Model or score
A way to compare things using chosen rules. Different rules can give different scores.
Future goal or scenario
Something we hope to achieve, or imagine might happen. It is not a measured fact.
- Milestone
- An important step toward a goal.
- Indicator
- A measurement that helps us understand something.
- Dependency
- Something that may need help from something else.
- Biodiversity
- The variety of living things.
- GW
- Gigawatts: a unit of power. Capacity is what equipment can produce at its rated output.