Artificial Intelligence
General-purpose artificial intelligence
How can computers help us think and create?
Start with the big picture. Open the sections below to see the evidence and future goals.
Progress Scale progress
2031 · Metaculus AGI median
weak AGI forecast: Sep 2027
Steps toward the future
Explore the milestone ladder
- doneSuperhuman narrow AI (Go, protein folding)2016–2020LEVEL 2
- doneHuman-level on hard reasoning benchmarks (ARC-AGI-2 > 85%)2026LEVEL 2
- doneExpert-level on frontier science exam (HLE > 50%)Sep 2026LEVEL 2
- nextWeakly general AI (Metaculus definition)median Sep 2027LEVEL 2
- plannedAGI — matches a skilled human at nearly all cognitive workmedian Apr 2031LEVEL 3
- farTrusted autonomous scientist / starship computerLEVEL 4
Economic conditions for progress
Explore IMF findings on fiscal pressure, AI investment, trade and digital-finance risk.
Read the 2026 IMF research brief ↗Human dimensions
Related measures within Humanity.
Action path
Level 2: weakly general AI
Explore the possible steps
Possible steps
- Continued scaling plus agentic systems
- Benchmarks thought hard (ARC-AGI-2, HLE) cleared ahead of forecast
- Weak AGI (Metaculus median Sep 2027)
- AGI (median 2031)
Alignment and governance capacity keeping pace with capability — the one fork that can move Peace either way
A data or compute wall shifts progress to reasoning efficiency and tool use; same rung a few years later
What to watch
Metaculus AGI date; share of new scientific results with an AI-generated hypothesis; harmful autonomous incidents
Related snapshot measures
These are the available measures in the supplied dataset; they may be proxies for the leading indicators above.
Unlocks
A scenario from the supplied handoff, not a prediction or professional advice.
Sourced indicators / 4
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Model or score
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Future goal or scenario
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- Dependency
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- Biodiversity
- The variety of living things.
- GW
- Gigawatts: a unit of power. Capacity is what equipment can produce at its rated output.