Artificial Intelligence
Autonomous systems supporting civilization over long horizons
How can computers help us think and create?
Start with the big picture. Open the sections below to see the evidence and future goals.
95% · Frontier reasoning benchmark (ARC-AGI-2)
no hard-wired Three Laws exist
Steps toward the future
Explore the milestone ladder
- doneExpert-level reasoning models2026LEVEL 2
- doneHumanoids in commercial pilots2025–26LEVEL 2
- nextAGIMetaculus median 2031LEVEL 2
- plannedRobots governed by enforced laws of behaviorLEVEL 3
- farA autonomous steward guiding civilization across millenniaLEVEL 4
Human dimensions
Related measures within Humanity.
Action path
This near-term path is shared with the corresponding Cooperative track.
Level 2: weakly general AI
Explore the possible steps
Possible steps
- Continued scaling plus agentic systems
- Benchmarks thought hard (ARC-AGI-2, HLE) cleared ahead of forecast
- Weak AGI (Metaculus median Sep 2027)
- AGI (median 2031)
Alignment and governance capacity keeping pace with capability — the one fork that can move Peace either way
A data or compute wall shifts progress to reasoning efficiency and tool use; same rung a few years later
What to watch
Metaculus AGI date; share of new scientific results with an AI-generated hypothesis; harmful autonomous incidents
Related snapshot measures
These are the available measures in the supplied dataset; they may be proxies for the leading indicators above.
Unlocks
A scenario from the supplied handoff, not a prediction or professional advice.
Sourced indicators / 2
Open a measurement to see where it comes from.
See measurements & sources
New here? What the labels mean
Reported fact
A number from a named source. Check when, where and what it measures.
Model or score
A way to compare things using chosen rules. Different rules can give different scores.
Future goal or scenario
Something we hope to achieve, or imagine might happen. It is not a measured fact.
- Milestone
- An important step toward a goal.
- Indicator
- A measurement that helps us understand something.
- Dependency
- Something that may need help from something else.
- Biodiversity
- The variety of living things.
- GW
- Gigawatts: a unit of power. Capacity is what equipment can produce at its rated output.