Societal forecasting
Computational social science and long-term scenario modeling
Explore this topic
Start with the big picture. Open the sections below to see the evidence and future goals.
36% · Psychology findings that replicated
of 100 studies retested in 2015; a science of society needs laws that hold
Steps toward the future
Explore the milestone ladder
- doneMass data on the whole populationLEVEL 2
- doneStatistical social science with replicable lawspartial replication crisisLEVEL 2
- nowCalibrated short-range forecasting (markets, Metaculus)months to yearsLEVEL 2
- nextAI-agent simulation of whole societiesearly researchLEVEL 2
- plannedDecade-scale forecasts with error bars that holdLEVEL 3
- farSocietal forecasting: millennium-scale predictionLEVEL 4
Action path
Decade-scale forecasts with error bars that hold
Explore the possible steps
Possible steps
- Replication reform in the social sciences
- Forecasting tournaments with public track records
- AI agent-based simulation of whole societies
- Decade-scale forecasts with stated error bars
Whether social-science findings become reproducible enough to build on (36% replicated in the benchmark set)
Prediction markets scale faster than academic reform and become the de facto forecasting layer
What to watch
Replication rate in registered reports; multi-year Brier scores of public forecasters
Related snapshot measures
These are the available measures in the supplied dataset; they may be proxies for the leading indicators above.
Unlocks
No dependent tracks listed.
A scenario from the supplied handoff, not a prediction or professional advice.
Sourced indicators / 2
Open a measurement to see where it comes from.
See measurements & sources
New here? What the labels mean
Reported fact
A number from a named source. Check when, where and what it measures.
Model or score
A way to compare things using chosen rules. Different rules can give different scores.
Future goal or scenario
Something we hope to achieve, or imagine might happen. It is not a measured fact.
- Milestone
- An important step toward a goal.
- Indicator
- A measurement that helps us understand something.
- Dependency
- Something that may need help from something else.
- Biodiversity
- The variety of living things.
- GW
- Gigawatts: a unit of power. Capacity is what equipment can produce at its rated output.